Pegasus Capital

Blog With Tag brexit

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A View from the Bridge - July 2017

The primary driver of the recent rise in UK swap rates has been a more hawkish tilt from certain members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. This has been predicated on more recent inflation outturns coming in above levels anticipated when the BOE last published its quarterly inflation forecasts in early May and that CPI will rise above the 3% level in the coming months before moderating as past effects of foreign exchange rate weakness work their way through the economy.

PegasusCapital - Thu 3rd Aug

A View from the Bridge - March 2017

They say that breaking up is hard to do but it doesn’t always need to be messy and depends on both sides willingness to cooperate in their common interests. With Article 50 having been triggered it’s clear that the EU wants to focus on a sequential process and the UK on considering all aspects of withdrawing from the EU in parallel.

PegasusCapital - Mon 3rd Apr

A View from the Bridge - December 2016

Whether 2016 was the beginning of the end to the financial crisis that has dominated economics and politics for the best part of the last decade is not yet crystal clear, but what is certain is that the events of the last 12 months will have a profound impact on both geopolitics and the global economy for the next decade and perhaps beyond.

PegasusCapital - Tue 10th Jan

A View from the Bridge - Oct 2016

Like going into Ye Olde Sweet Shoppe without knowing if we want pear drops or some fudge, Brexit is bringing out that hard toffee/soft toffee debate amongst us all! Added to that, whether you love it or hate it, Marmitegate brought to everyone’s attention the first real signs of the impact a Brexit vote will have on day to day spending. As the Pound reached a 168 year low and inflation rose to 1% UK business confidence hit a post referendum high, with jobs growth being sustained and unemployment still at just 4.9%. Early manufacturing data signaled a strong economic performance which was borne out as the UK economy grew in September by 0.5%. The BoE kept rates unchanged and defended its use of QE as being good for growth but indicated that it will not rely on QE as the only fiscal stimulus.
Tags: OPEC, GILT, Brexit, QE

PegasusCapital - Tue 1st Nov

A View from the Bridge - July 2016

Data output for July was never going to be anything but dramatic after the Brexit result but it wasn't the UK grabbing the headlines. US seasonally and inflation adjusted annual GDP growth of just 1.2% in Q2 was the weakest pace in any expansion period since 1949! This was at odds with some of the more positive news as consumer spending remains strong, home sales have hit a post-recession high and 287 thousand new jobs were added but reduced business investment, large reductions in inventories and declining Government spending have clearly knocked economic output. The likelihood of a September rate hike has reduced to 12% and US long term rates have hit the lowest in their 227 year history.

PegasusCapital - Thu 4th Aug

A View from the Bridge - Sep 2017

UK GDP increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, matching the second quarter estimate and the consensus however, the y-o-y growth rate was revised down to 1.5%, from 1.7%. In addition, the latest PMI survey showed a modest deceleration in the rates of expansion in UK manufacturing production and new orders. Exports remain a bright spot and are still rising at one of the strongest rates over the past six-and-a-half years however, manufacturing is also increasingly being impacted by rising cost inflationary pressures due to rising commodity prices and higher import costs from the historically weak sterling exchange rate.
Tags: UK GDP, ECB, FOMC

PegasusCapital - Wed 4th Oct