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Blog With Tag us gdp

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A View from the Bridge - November 2015

Last month it was 65% of economists and this month its 81% of global fund managers that expect a December interest rate rise in the US, with the Fed having given out the strongest signs so far that it will pull the trigger. That said, the Fed funds futures market currently implies that there is a 74% chance of a rate rise, which is a more accurate reflection of probability. With US GDP being revised upwards from 1.5% to 2.1% for Q3, unemployment falling to a 5 year low with a further 270k jobs being created and wage growth rising to 2.5% year on year it would appear that the data supports the rate rise view.

PegasusCapital - Tue 1st Dec

A View from the Bridge - May 2018

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at its May meeting. Markets had largely written off any probability of an increase following the BOE Governor’s BBC interview in late April where he alluded to weaker Q1 growth and Brexit uncertainty delaying the prospect of higher interest rates. The inflation report itself provided very little in terms of guidance as to the timing of the next interest rate increase, forecast inflation was revised down slightly due to the lower than expected outturns since the last forecast round.

PegasusCapital - Mon 18th Jun