Global growth enters 2018 on a strong footing with confidence surveys at multi-year highs in many regions and inflation expectations still tame but without fears of deflation hindering investment decisions. Strong growth in Q1 should underpin the late 2017 surge in equity and credit valuations, but the outlook for H2 2018 could prove more challenging for asset markets if some of these positive forces plateau or go into reverse.
PegasusCapital - Thu 25th Jan
UK GDP increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, matching the second quarter estimate and the consensus however, the y-o-y growth rate was revised down to 1.5%, from 1.7%. In addition, the latest PMI survey showed a modest deceleration in the rates of expansion in UK manufacturing production and new orders. Exports remain a bright spot and are still rising at one of the strongest rates over the past six-and-a-half years however, manufacturing is also increasingly being impacted by rising cost inflationary pressures due to rising commodity prices and higher import costs from the historically weak sterling exchange rate.
PegasusCapital - Wed 4th Oct
Yesterday’s FT article, which appeared on page 2 of the printed edition, highlighted the Bank of England’s concerns over interest rate complacency. It is worth noting that the BOE were given the inflation data on Friday, as this was stated by the ONS in this morning’s release and it is also likely that preliminary wage data was furnished at a similar time therefore, yesterday’s article could be viewed as more of a response to incoming data as opposed to simply being a generic argument about market complacency.
PegasusCapital - Sun 10th Sep
The primary driver of the recent rise in UK swap rates has been a more hawkish tilt from certain members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. This has been predicated on more recent inflation outturns coming in above levels anticipated when the BOE last published its quarterly inflation forecasts in early May and that CPI will rise above the 3% level in the coming months before moderating as past effects of foreign exchange rate weakness work their way through the economy.
PegasusCapital - Thu 3rd Aug
The use of “gunboat diplomacy” in Asia by a world superpower, first witnessed in the 1840’s, is back at the forefront of international relations as the US President sends a naval strike group towards the Korean peninsula.
PegasusCapital - Tue 2nd May