The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at its May meeting. Markets had largely written off any probability of an increase following the BOE Governor’s BBC interview in late April where he alluded to weaker Q1 growth and Brexit uncertainty delaying the prospect of higher interest rates. The inflation report itself provided very little in terms of guidance as to the timing of the next interest rate increase, forecast inflation was revised down slightly due to the lower than expected outturns since the last forecast round.
PegasusCapital - Mon 18th Jun
Economic Growth in the UK during Q1 has been quite disappointing, with the ONS advanced estimate showing activity barely changing in the first three months of the year relative to the end of 2017, with the ‘Beast from the East’ only partly to blame! Expectations for a 25bp interest rate increase in May reached a high of 90% in early April, but weaker than expected inflation reported for March, an unscheduled dovish interview with the BBC by BOE Governor Carney, and last week’s publication of the weak GDP data, pretty much ruled out the prospect of higher rates at the May meeting.
PegasusCapital - Tue 1st May
Global growth enters 2018 on a strong footing with confidence surveys at multi-year highs in many regions and inflation expectations still tame but without fears of deflation hindering investment decisions. Strong growth in Q1 should underpin the late 2017 surge in equity and credit valuations, but the outlook for H2 2018 could prove more challenging for asset markets if some of these positive forces plateau or go into reverse.
PegasusCapital - Thu 25th Jan
UK GDP increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, matching the second quarter estimate and the consensus however, the y-o-y growth rate was revised down to 1.5%, from 1.7%. In addition, the latest PMI survey showed a modest deceleration in the rates of expansion in UK manufacturing production and new orders. Exports remain a bright spot and are still rising at one of the strongest rates over the past six-and-a-half years however, manufacturing is also increasingly being impacted by rising cost inflationary pressures due to rising commodity prices and higher import costs from the historically weak sterling exchange rate.
PegasusCapital - Wed 4th Oct
Yesterday’s FT article, which appeared on page 2 of the printed edition, highlighted the Bank of England’s concerns over interest rate complacency. It is worth noting that the BOE were given the inflation data on Friday, as this was stated by the ONS in this morning’s release and it is also likely that preliminary wage data was furnished at a similar time therefore, yesterday’s article could be viewed as more of a response to incoming data as opposed to simply being a generic argument about market complacency.
PegasusCapital - Sun 10th Sep